Back before all this Interleague Play stuff was introduced, and back before trades from league to league were quite as commonplace as they are now, one of the charms of the World Series was seeing two great teams face each other who had not faced off before--observing greatness meeting greatness without the benefit of the voluminous statistical analysis that has been a part of baseball since its beginnings. The World Series is a little like some Olympic sports that way--you're never really sure how one teams strengths and weaknesses will stack up against another's.

And of course, you never know if those same strengths and weaknesses will have an impact on the actual game played on the field. Arizona's weak bullpen may be a nonfactor if the starters put in a few complete games, for example.

We have two teams here, one of which is so new that nobody really has what could be called "history" against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The two teams have never faced each other, not even in spring training. But this is the twenty-first century, and we do have some numbers to look at regarding these two teams. And beyond numbers, we have some facts, history, and opinions to consider, as well--all of which lead me to believe the Yankees have an excellent chance to win their fourth straight title.

Let's start with the obvious. Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling have been called, repeatedly, the "best one-two punch in baseball," and I do not dispute that they are two of the toughest pitchers in the game. Numbers don't lie--the two of them sit atop the N.L. ERA list, and lead in several other pitching categories.

But look at the pitchers who have traditionally given these Yankees trouble. Jamie Moyer? A soft-tossing junkballer who has three speeds of changeup. The Yankees, being a bunch of contact hitters with no single big bopper in the lineup, have the most trouble with a pitcher like Moyer, whose slow stuff wrecks their timing. And how about one of the other "best" pitchers in baseball, Pedro Martinez? The Yankees have handed him several losses and no-decisions over the past three seasons, and overall Pedro is 6 and 6 against the Bronx Bombers for a mere .500 winning percentage. The only ballclub to hand Pedro more losses overall is Houston (4-7), and that was back before he became the multi-Cy Young award winner we now know him as.

The Yankees aren't afraid of Pedro and they aren't afraid of Schilling or Johnson. In high adrenaline situations, in pressure packed October (and maybe even November) settings, the Yankees will rely on those instincts that have let them hit those crucial bloops, those booming home runs, off so many other Cy Young winners like Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, and Tom Glavine.

Now let's look at the actual splits. Johnson carries a 6-7 losing record versus the Yankees and a 4.12 ERA. The only other team he carries a losing record against is Baltimore, against whom he's 3 and 7, which just goes to show that you never can tell.

And Schilling? He's 1-2 in four starts versus the Yankees, which isn't a large statistical sample, but is a losing record nonetheless. And how about that 4.66 ERA? I think it's also worth noting that against most American League teams he has faced through interleague play, Schilling has only seven wins to fourteen losses. Perhaps unfamiliarity with the hitters is to Curt's disadvantage, or maybe he's just allergic to the American League.

A couple of Yankee hitters have good numbers against Schilling, and I am betting you can predict who some of them are. Since 1998: Derek Jeter .429 with a home run, David Justice .333 with a home run, Paul O'Neill .429 with a double, and Chuck Knoblauch has walked twice in five at bats. Jorge, Bernie and Tino haven't done as well, though Tino has one home run off him, Bernie's 1-for-5, Scott Brosius 1-for-6.

Very very few of the current Yankees have faced Johnson in recent years, since the Diamondbacks and Yankees have never faced one another in interleague play, and Johnson's time with Seattle was before the Joe Torre era. But how about these numbers from three yankee benchwarmers? Enrique Wilson is 3-for-3, Gerald Williams 4-for-14 (.286), And Randy Velarde 1-for-3. I can't help but think about how Joe Torre played utilityman Jose Vizcaino in Game One because of his good numbers versus Al Leiter. The Viz batted ninth but got four hits on the night, including the game-winner in the twelfth inning, long after Leiter had been chased from the game.

The only Diamondbacks with recent numbers off Mike Mussina are Reggie Sanders, 1-for-1, and Luis Gonzalez, 3-for-11 (.273), but you know they are going to pitch around Gonzo no matter what. Since 1998, Gonzalez is 2-for-12 off Clemens (a double and a home run), 1-for-3 off El Duque, and apparently hasn't faced Andy Pettitte in recent memory. There are a couple of guys who have gotten good swings off Pettitte in the past, though. Watch out for Danny Bautista (3 for 5), Mike DeFelice (4 for 12), Chad Moeller (2 for 2) and Reggie Sanders, 1 for 2 with a home run. Interestingly, Craig Counsell, who absolutely tormented both righty and lefty pitchers in the ALDS and ALCS, is 0 for 3 off Pettitte.

Let's talk about Craig Counsell. He may be a part-time player who has bounced around the league, but he's the one D-back with a World Series ring, from when he was with the 1997 Marlins, and he's been tearing the place up with RBI hits in key spots. His previous experience in the postseason would seem to indicate he won't turn out like Benny Agbayani or Timo Perez, young Mets who were hot in the playoffs but who shriveled in the World Series last year. But Counsell can't do it alone, and even if he has morphed himself into the next Ichiro Suzuki, well, just look what the Yankees did to Ichiro in this year's ALCS--4-for-18 (.222). Thanks to extensive scouting, they effectively neutralized the AL batting champion, along with Bret Boone (.200) and Edgar Martinez (though granted, Edgar hasn't been himself since the groin injury). Speaking of neutralizing, Luis Gonzalez isn't an MVP candidate for nothing. But so was Jason Giambi, and he's at home watching this series on tv. You can be sure a small army of Yankees scouts have been taking copious notes on the Diamondbacks in recent weeks.

But what is so exciting about baseball is that even when we think we can predict what is going to happen, we can't. There are no guarantees for or against the lucky bloop hit, the bad hop on the infield, fan interference, bad (or good) umpiring calls, or the pinch hitter who has never hit a home run off a certain pitcher but who this time hits a grand slam. Any team, no matter how good or bad, can beat any other team in baseball if the conditions are right. Still, from the way things look here, the advantage goes to the World Champion Yankees.

The only thing you can guarantee is that if the Diamondbacks surge to beat the Yankees (much the way the Yankees beat the Atlanta Braves in 1996), it will be because they played hard and they played well. It is always possible.

Just not very probable.