MAY 5 2005: How Offensive
Today seems like an appropriate day for reflection on the Yankees, because of the irrefutably ugly facts that are staring New York in the face this morning. These being that Tampa Bay, which had lost eight games in a row, have just won two in a row from the Yankees, and also the fact that on both those nights, the Rays scored 11 runs on each.
This whole business of runs is somewhat interesting. We "students of the game" (read: fanatics) have a tendency to go deep into the stats, to look at the fine points of on base percentage and situational hitting, and use formulas and all that. But today I decided to just have a look at the biggest, simplest numbers we have in the game, and that's "points" scored. No strategy, no lineups, no analysis, just observation of the following.
We are now 28 games into the season. By this date last year, they had only scored 123 runs in 25 games. So let's look at the first 25 games of this year. Hmm. They scored 129 runs, which is a few more. (But wait, you say, they had that 19 run outburst on that night A-rod went bananas... yeah, yeah, fine, well they had blowouts last season, too, like that 12-1 win in the second game of the season.) The point is, the offense as a whole is really about as productive as last year. Last year we had the Jeter mystery slump and some guys go off to slow starts. This year we have more slow starts, and other than Jeter, Sheff and A-rod, everyone else has been streaky. But the whole point of looking at the whole number is to even out the hot and cold streaks. 123 runs in 2004, 129 runs in 2005.
There is a good chance that by the end of the season, their production will be similar to last year as well. This is not to say that the streakiness is not a problem: it is. Last year, but this time, the Yankees had been held to 1 or fewer runs exactly once--in the 2-0 shutout that Pedro pitched against Vasquez at the Stadium. This year, they've been shutout once and held to one run four times, and lost all five games. As for blowouts where they score 8 or more runs, we had five of them by this point in 2004 (and won them all). This season, seven, but we won only six of them. The streakiness hurts in the won-lost column.
Now let's look at the runs given up. 115 in 2004, 131 in 2005. Now it is starting to look different. Yes, of course there were the games last year where they won 11-8 or 10-8, but total last year through 25 games the Yankees outscored their opponents 123-115. This year, we have been outscored, 129-131 through 25, 147-155 through last night's game, May 4th. I begin to suspect that if the offensive output is roughly the same, but we are getting outscored, well, I can conclude only one thing:
The pitching sucks.
Here's another observation from the runs columns. To this point last year, when the Yankees scored 5 or more runs in a game, they won every single time. This year, when scoring 5 or more runs in a game, well, there are already six losses. 12-5, 8-5, 7-6, 8-4, 8-6, and last night, 11-8.
The problem is not scoring runs. The problem is outscoring the opponents. And this year the pitching has not been able to keep runs off the board--except for that one three day span where they held them to 10 runs over 3 days, but the Yankees scored only 2 in that same time frame. But call that bad luck or bad timing, even with those games, the team would still be below .500.
Because here's the biggest numbers of all, the record stands at 11-17.
You can stop reading now, because what follows will be 100% griping. The offense, we know, could be better if some of the slumping guys could get going. But as I think I've shown, overall, the lineup HAS been producing. The pitching is the bigger culprit.
So what did the front office do this past week to shake things up? Benched Bernie Williams, moved Tony Womack to left field and Matsui to center, brought up Robinson Cano to play second base, inserted Andy Phillips into more games at 1B/DH, and shuffled the lineup once again. Why? Because they had to so SOMETHING. And frankly, what can they do about the pitching?
They've already brought up Chien-Ming Wang (who used to be known as Tiger Wang but I have yet to hear why he doesn't go by the nickname anymore -- does Tiger Woods have the trademark now?) to replace the injured Jaret Wright. Now they brought up Sean Henn from Triple-A too, because Randy Johnson tweaked his groin. Kevin Brown has been repeatedly awful. Carl Pavano got beaned with a line drive and has been up and down and generally not great. Moose is finding himself, and it wouldn't even be a concern except that he's been the only one halfway consistent.
And to think that is only the starters. Mo Rivera's blown saves against Boston got all the publicity, but he has been throwing unhittably lately when coming into games. Unfortunately that has rarely been in a save situation, because usually the Yankees are trailing coming into the ninth. Tom Gordon can't seem to stop giving up home runs, neither can Paul Quantrill. After those two guys were lights out all last year until their arms were burned out for October, they still haven't recovered. The one emerging star, of course, was Tanyon Sturtze, and he has been on the disabled list--and who knows if when he comes back if he'll be in form? They finally brought Buddy Groom up from Columbus because they'd lose him if he wasn't with the big club on May 1st, but he has turned out to be human, too. Stanton has been hittable, then gotten unhittable, and back to hittable again. Some night s that big 12-6 curve bends in for a strike. And some nights it doesn't, he gets behind in the count, he comes in with a fastball that isn't that fast, and BOOM.
The only pitcher I haven't mentioned is Felix Rodriguez, and if you are counting on the 12th man in the bullpen to be your savior, you're in big trouble. No pitcher on this staff has been without either injuries or complete mound meltdown. How can it be that EVERY guy has struggled? There's no explanation for it--it just happened. Not a single one has been without either a physical ailment of some kind, or struggled to be close to how good he can be.
NOT A SINGLE ONE.
And what can they do about it? Not a thing. They have already called up the only two arms in Columbus who might help, and there is no one left to trade for help. The only hope is for these guys to actually get it together. Moose has to spot his fastball better, and he certainly may be on the upswing given his outing against Tampa a few days ago. Randy Johnson has looked good lately, but if he is on the bench with a groin thing... ouch. Wright was not exactly Superman before he went on the shelf, but he might still be better than Wang or Henn. Pavano just needs to settle down and improve and accept the fact that he's in the American League. (For that matter, they all do... except Moose who has never known different.) The bullpen? I have to hold out hope for a miracle cure for Quantrill and Gordon's burnout because miracles are about the only strategy that hasn't been tried.
And Brown? Can anything be more disappointing that the hotheaded a**, who broke his hand last year when they needed him most? Brown was supposed to be an ace-type stopper who, in October especially, would put minuscule runs on the board. Instead, the end of the season was saved by El Duque, who won eight starts in a row, and then his arm was burned out, too. Brown and Vazquez both went out there to stop the bleeding in Game Seven of the ALCS only to both hemorrhage runs all over the place. Now this year he first refused to go to the minors for a rehab start, and instead started with the big club and got bombed, and then after getting bombed in the first inning more than once, instituted a new warmup regimen in which he would pitch a simulated inning in the bullpen before coming out. Then he decided he didn't like that regimen after all (though it did produce one slightly better start, where at least he did not get bombed in the 1st) and he went out to face the Devil Rays and gave up six runs on eight hits in the first inning.
Yes, it does make it worse that it was the Devil Rays. No, it doesn't mitigate it at all that he's a ground ball pitcher and the Field Turf in the dome is still kind of fast. Only two of the hits were softish grounders that got through. he real problem was not the turf but that Brown was leaving the ball out over the plate. Many of the hits came on 0-2, because he was throwing so many strikes he looked like he was throwing batting practice. Argh.
Either the pitching improves, or we will spend the entire season looking up at the Orioles tailfeathers.
Oh yeah, one more little note about runs scored. Here are the standings, and the number of runs scored by each team in the AL East through May 4th. Just FYI:
- BAL 18-9 151 runs
- BOS 15-12 148 runs
- TOR 16-13 138 runs
- NYY 11-17 147 runs
- TAM 10-18 135 runs
That we've outscored Toronto and just about tied Boston, yet they are each above .500 while we are one win from tying with Tampa for the cellar tells you something.
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